A simple epidemic model for semi-closed community reveals the hidden outbreak risk in nursing homes, prisons, and residential universities.

We develop a general SIS model to study the epidemic transmission in such semi-closed communities. The community population is divided into susceptible and infected in terms of the infection state, and concerning the physical structure of the crowd, they are classified into mobile and fixed individuals. The mobile individuals can be inside or outside the community, while the fixed individuals can be only inside the community. There are fixed infection sources outside the community, measuring the epidemic severity in society. We attribute the spreading to two reasons: (i) clustered infection among the community population and (ii) the epidemic in society spreading to the community population. We discuss the model in two cases. In the first case, the epidemic spreads in society, such that reasons (i) and (ii) work together. The results show that concerning fixed individuals (e.g. the elderly in nursing homes), a more closed community always promotes the infection. In the second case, there is no epidemic spreading in society, such that only reason (i) works. The results show that restricting all individuals to the community produces equivalent consequences as allowing them going outside the community. We should evenly distribute individuals inside and outside to form isolation. A counterexample is residential universities implementing closed management, where only students are restricted to campus. The model shows such management may lead to severe epidemics, and to prevent the epidemic outbreaks, students should have free access to being on or off campus.

Lessons We Have Learned Regarding Seroprevalence in High and Low SARS-CoV-2 Contexts in Greece before the Omicron Pandemic Wave.

BACKGROUND: Antibody seroprevalence in rural communities remains poorly investigated. We compared the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in two Greek communities in June and July 2021 after the end of the Delta-driven pandemic wave that started in November 2020. One community was affected worse than the other. METHODS: The SARS-CoV-2 IgG II Quant method (Architect, Abbott, IL, USA) was used for antibody testing. RESULTS: We found a high rate of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in both communities, approaching 77.5%. In the area with a higher burden of COVID-19, Malesina, seropositivity was achieved with vaccine-acquired and naturally acquired immunity, whereas in the low-burden context of Domokos, the high rates of seropositivity were achieved mainly with vaccination. Previously infected individuals were less likely to be vaccinated than previously uninfected adults. The antibody titers were significantly higher in previously infected, vaccinated participants than in unvaccinated ones. In total, 4% and 10% of the unvaccinated population were diagnosed seropositive for the first time while not knowing about the previous infection. Age and gender did not impact antibody titers in high- or low-burden contexts. CONCLUSIONS: Before the Omicron pandemic wave, herd immunity was reached in different contexts in Greece. Higher antibody titers were measured in infected vaccinated individuals than in infected unvaccinated ones.

Defining Antibody Seroprevalence and Duration of Humoral Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Infection and/or Vaccination in a Greek Community.

BACKGROUND: In this work, we aimed to evaluate antibody-response longevity to SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or vaccination in one of the Greek communities that was worst hit by the pandemic, Deskati, five months after a previous serosurveillance and nine months after the pandemic wave initiation (October 2020). METHODS: The SARS-CoV-2 IgG II Quant method (Architect, Abbott, IL, USA) was used for antibody testing. RESULTS: A total of 69 subjects, who previously tested positive or negative for COVID-19 antibodies, participated in the study. We found that 48% of participants turned positive due to vaccination. 27% of participants were both previously infected and vaccinated. However, all previously infected participants retained antibodies to the virus, irrespective of their vaccination status. The antibody titers were significantly higher in previously infected participants that had been vaccinated than those who were unvaccinated and in those that had been previously hospitalized for COVID-19 than those with mild disease. CONCLUSIONS: Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection were maintained nine months after the pandemic. Vaccination alone had generated an immune response in almost half of the population. Higher antibody titers were found in the case of vaccination in previously infected subjects and especially in those with severe disease leading to hospitalization.

Understanding COVID-19 Epidemiology and Implications for Control: The Experience from a Greek Semi-Closed Community.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 antigen and antibody seroprevalence in one of the worst-affected by the pandemic semi-closed communities in Greece, Deskati, and evaluate the sociodemographic and clinical correlations of functional antibody responses. METHODS: The Ag2019n-CoV V1310/V1330 Rapid Test (Prognosis Biotech, Greece) was used for antigen detection. The Rapid Test 2019-nCoV Total Ig, V1210/V1230 (Prognosis Biotech, Greece), and the SARS-CoV-2 IgG II Quant method (Architect, Abbott, Illinois, USA) were used for antibody testing. RESULTS: None of the participants had a positive antigen result. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity ranged from 13% to 45% in the study population, depending on the method. One-third of the participants with known past infection had a positive antibody test result 77 ± 13 days after infection. Two-fifths of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. The advancing age and hospitalization predicted seropositivity among patients with past infection. Half of the participants who tested positive for antibodies were not aware of past infection. CONCLUSIONS: High-burden contexts in Greece, such as Deskati, are not so far from herd immunity thresholds. We highlighted the value of low-cost serosurveys targeting both symptomatic and asymptomatic populations to evaluate the natural immune response to SARS-CoV-2 in nonvaccinated susceptibles and design evidence-based policies for lifting lockdowns.